A former Russian diplomat leaves Russia over the war with a newborn son and ends up on twelve-hour factory shifts in Galilee. A smartwatch full of English words gets him into a doctoral program. Now he asks why Russians abroad still face their troubles alone, and proposes a way out.
Many believe a dictatorship falls once 3.5% of the population takes to the streets. Even Erica Chenoweth, whose research gave rise to the figure, now calls protest size an unreliable predictor of success. The outcome is decided by whether the army and police agree to shoot, and in Russia they will.
Since 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled Putin's war, most of them young, educated and politically active. Yet in 2022, Russians filed only about 18,400 asylum claims in Europe, and fewer than a third were granted. Many ended up in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Israel instead.