A former Russian diplomat leaves Russia over the war with a newborn son and ends up on twelve-hour factory shifts in Galilee. A smartwatch full of English words gets him into a doctoral program. Now he asks why Russians abroad still face their troubles alone, and proposes a way out.
Many believe a dictatorship falls once 3.5% of the population takes to the streets. Even Erica Chenoweth, whose research gave rise to the figure, now calls protest size an unreliable predictor of success. The outcome is decided by whether the army and police agree to shoot, and in Russia they will.
Near Novorossiysk there is a tiny village called Ubykh, named after a Circassian tribe that once lived on this coast. In 1864, after decades of war, Russia completed the destruction of Circassia, and hundreds of thousands fled to Turkey. Could a revived Circassia now offer southern Russia a way out of Putin's war?
Since 1950, only four heads of state have come to power through purely peaceful protest. Far more dictatorships have fallen to coups: in one study, 102 of 201 autocracies were toppled by insiders. What does this mean for Putin's regime and for a Russian opposition that still relies on peaceful marches?
Since 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled Putin's war, most of them young, educated and politically active. Yet in 2022, Russians filed only about 18,400 asylum claims in Europe, and fewer than a third were granted. Many ended up in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Israel instead.
In December 1905, as its governor and his deputy fled, Novorossiysk declared itself an independent republic without firing a shot. Its elected council brought in an eight-hour workday, freed political prisoners and taxed big business. Two weeks later, troops arrived and the republic was gone.