Many believe a dictatorship falls once 3.5% of the population takes to the streets. Even Erica Chenoweth, whose research gave rise to the figure, now calls protest size an unreliable predictor of success. The outcome is decided by whether the army and police agree to shoot, and in Russia they will.
In October 2025, Tanzania's president won 97.66% of the vote after the main opposition party was barred from the election. That same month, 92-year-old Paul Biya won an eighth term in Cameroon, and 255 people were arrested in Côte d'Ivoire for disputing the count. Elections here no longer change power. They confirm it.
On June 13, 2025, Israel struck Iran's nuclear sites and killed top commanders, turning a long cold war into open conflict. Nine days later, the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. After the June 24 ceasefire, Iran's nuclear program is halted, but what comes next: new escalation, a real truce or regime change?
In December 2024, the Assad regime, which Russia had propped up since 2015, collapsed while Russian forces did nothing. Six months later, Washington and Brussels lifted sanctions, and Syria's new rulers are talking of peace with Israel. How did Moscow manage to lose its closest Arab ally?
Since 1950, only four heads of state have come to power through purely peaceful protest. Far more dictatorships have fallen to coups: in one study, 102 of 201 autocracies were toppled by insiders. What does this mean for Putin's regime and for a Russian opposition that still relies on peaceful marches?
In December 1905, as its governor and his deputy fled, Novorossiysk declared itself an independent republic without firing a shot. Its elected council brought in an eight-hour workday, freed political prisoners and taxed big business. Two weeks later, troops arrived and the republic was gone.