Many believe a dictatorship falls once 3.5% of the population takes to the streets. Even Erica Chenoweth, whose research gave rise to the figure, now calls protest size an unreliable predictor of success. The outcome is decided by whether the army and police agree to shoot, and in Russia they will.
On June 13, 2025, Israel struck Iran's nuclear sites and killed top commanders, turning a long cold war into open conflict. Nine days later, the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. After the June 24 ceasefire, Iran's nuclear program is halted, but what comes next: new escalation, a real truce or regime change?
In 2024, Israel became the first country to use a combat laser in war, shooting down about 40 Hezbollah drones. Each interception costs a few dollars of electricity, against tens of thousands for an Iron Dome missile. But the Light Shield only works at short range and in clear weather.
Since 1950, only four heads of state have come to power through purely peaceful protest. Far more dictatorships have fallen to coups: in one study, 102 of 201 autocracies were toppled by insiders. What does this mean for Putin's regime and for a Russian opposition that still relies on peaceful marches?
In December 1905, as its governor and his deputy fled, Novorossiysk declared itself an independent republic without firing a shot. Its elected council brought in an eight-hour workday, freed political prisoners and taxed big business. Two weeks later, troops arrived and the republic was gone.