By mid-2025, the jihadist group JNIM controlled vast areas from central Mali to northern Benin, with some six thousand fighters. It runs Sharia courts, collects taxes and protects villagers, so many locals see it as a lesser evil than the army. Its emirs now call Russia, which backs Mali's junta, the new crusader.
After losing its bases in Syria, Russia turned eastern Libya into its main foothold, flying in troops and building up airbases. But in April 2025, Haftar's army signed a defense deal with Turkey, Moscow's rival for influence in the region. Will Ankara now push Russia out of Libya altogether?
Mali, a former French colony, has turned away from Paris and toward Moscow. Russian instructors, many of them Wagner veterans of the war in Ukraine, now help its army fight insurgents. In return, Moscow is eyeing Mali's gold, uranium and lithium. Is this sovereignty or a new dependence?